Tuesday, December 2, 2008

NEW WEBSITES!

We have become much more technologically savvy!

Visit our two new sites:

TRIDAC MORTGAGES.COM

STOP SITTING ON YOUR ASSETS- e-book!

St. Basil Coffee

Here is the link to the Organic Fair Trade Coffee grower... Click Here to view their site.

STOP SITTING ON YOUR ASSETS

We live in interesting times! The news is mostly unsettling if not disastrous. The US based sub-prime fiasco, Iraq, corruption in Afghanistan, oil, global food prices, Zimbabwe, Global Warming, the terrible cyclone in Burma, China’s resurgence, and the seemingly permanent US election process.
We are all aware that major changes are taking place and that the world is experiencing simultaneous crises, any one of which represents a huge challenge. We know that in many ways they are all related, and that we are in an uncertain period between historical epochs. New models are going to emerge but nobody knows what they will be. We have seen oil prices rocket upwards and we vaguely expect that other shoes are going to drop.

Old business models and deeply-rooted assumptions are being challenged, including most of what we think we know about money. Most of the conventional wisdom about mortgage financing is based on the losses experienced during the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Sheltering savings in the home, by paying down the mortgage, was perceived as the best way to build protection against another such calamity, referred to in previous newsletters as “Black Swan” events. Pay off your mortgage and live debt free, became the mantra.

The current sub-prime crisis reminds me of the last housing market crash when home prices plunged about one third. At the height of the boom, in May 1989, I bought a home with a considerable down payment. By the early 90’s the value had fallen by 30% and only ten years later, about six years ago, did prices start to climb until we are now slightly ahead of 1989 levels. Fortunately, I did not have to sell in the nineties, otherwise I would have taken a huge loss.

During that period, when governments and companies downsized to reduce debt, homeowners were saddled with losses and had to live with the consequences.

Having observed and experienced these events, I have come to the view that there is a better way. It is possible to look at a mortgage as a financial planning tool! Instead of focusing on debt, it is more profitable to focus on managing and optimizing ‘net worth’. We should consider the opportunity cost of maintaining “dead” home equity, which earns us nothing, and which may be vulnerable to “Black Swan” events such as the one we are experiencing now.

In my travels I met American author Marian Snow who invited me to co-author a Canadian edition of her book “Stop Sitting on Your Assets”, which advocates this new approach. I have accepted her invitation because it ties in with our shift in thinking from that of mortgage broker to that of mortgage planner. During my spring initiative I also changed the face of our website by making it a springboard for launching the Canadian version of “Stop Sitting on Your Assets”. The book presents a holistic view of how to safely leverage the equity trapped in your home and transform it into a constant flow of wealth and security.

Before launching the book I would like to tell you via email how to reserve a ‘free copy’. To test the accuracy of our email data base this letter is being sent by both snail mail and email. If you did not receive an email version it indicates that we do not have your email address. If that is the case, please, respond to morwatch@ca.inter.net

BLUE MONDAY

The third Monday of each new year, this year January 21, is called “Blue Monday”, the most depressing day of the year. On that day I attended the 2008 Conference of mining venture companies in Vancouver where about 500 junior mining companies, with properties around the globe, set up shop to exchange information, promote the potential of their properties and to try to raise capital from investors. I happened to be in Vancouver for other reasons but was interested to hear the keynote speech and various panel discussions dealing with the Sub-Prime Crisis.

On ”Blue Monday”, while the US markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day, ‘out of the blue’ Asian stock markets crashed. Understandably, gloom settled over the mining conference and more people were clustered around TV sets following the market turmoil than were visiting the exhibitor’s booths. With a show of humour the first speaker reminded the audience that on such days even good stocks turn into “owl stocks”. They are “owl stocks” when you call your broker and say: “Sell” and his chirpy answer is “to whoo, to-whoo, to-whoo?”



The days’ major news story, the Market crash, reminded me of a phenomenon known as “Black Swan” - the occurrence of a highly improbable event.



Before the discovery of Australia, Europeans thought that all swans were white. It was an unassailable belief, 100% confirmed by empirical evidence. The sighting of the first black swan in Australia showed that there could be a serious problem with what we learn by observation. A single observation invalidated a general statement derived from confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans.

A “Black Swan is an event with the following three attributes:



First, it is unexpected because it is outside the range of earlier observation.

Second, it carries an extreme impact and the element of surprise.

Third, in spite of the fact that it is completely unexpected, human nature makes us concoct “after the fact” explanations, to make it seem retrospectively predictable.



From my ringside seat, among venture capitalists seeking to find worthwhile investment opportunities from a sea of proposals with unpredictable outcomes, I realized that a “Black Swan” event is not always negative. A high grade mineral discovery, for example, can result in a huge payoff. The reward comes from recognizing an opportunity when you see it.



Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the highly informative and entertaining book “The Black Swan”, points to our blindness with respect to the life consequences of significant random events. He also points out that our life paths are also determined by the cumulative effects of small random events, chance encounters and decisions which might not change the world but do completely structure our lives.



“Black Swan” events have always occurred, but today, earthquakes and hurricanes for example have more severe economic consequences than in the past because there are more of us in vulnerable areas with more complex and valuable infrastructures.



I first became aware of the “Black Swan” phenomenon while in San Diego in 2006, when the author was interviewed on TV and was asked to explain the spectacular implosion of the high flying ‘Amaranth’ fund, named after the flower that ‘never dies’, which lost $7 billion dollars in a few days. His laconic answer was ‘a case of Black Swans’.* (see my letter “Black Swans” of January 2007)



The current Sub-prime Crisis is another “Black Swan” event with global consequences. The fact that millions of mortgage borrowers are losing their home equity should bring us to understand that equity, the difference between the value of a home and a mortgage, cannot be protected. I see it as the typical “Black Swan” scenario that has implications for all of us. Let me explain.



A recent CMHC study determined that approximately 75% of Canadian home owners have the elimination of mortgage debt as their number one financial priority. While the goal of owning one’s home free and clear, as a nest egg for retirement, has long been widely applauded, the fact is that there are many wealthy people, who could buy their homes with cash, who choose to have a mortgage, often the largest possible mortgage. What does the ‘smart money’ know about money that most of us don’t know? The answer is that they know how to make their mortgage interest tax deductible and how to find investment opportunities elsewhere that generate returns that more than offset the cost of the mortgage.



What if most of what we think we know about money is not true or no longer relevant? Is it possible? Most of the conventional wisdom about mortgage financing is based on the experience of the Great Depression, some 80 years ago, after which well meaning financial planners formulated mortgage financing and investments strategies to protect home owners from the adverse effects of another such calamity. During the intervening years a lot of legislation has been passed to better protect consumers, but life expectancy has also increased with the result that we need asset protection for many more years than before.

We are now in the 21st Century with thinking that might be out of touch with today’s reality. We should consider the opportunity cost of maintaining “dead” home equity, which earns us nothing, and which may be vulnerable to future “Black Swan” events.



Recent innovative mortgage products make it possible to take advantage of a strategy that allows the conversion of mortgage interest payments from the “after tax” to “tax-deducible” category. Using this strategy it is possible to increase total assets faster than by using the conventional approach of minimizing mortgage interest payments by paying down the mortgage as quickly as possible.

Vancouver was only a stop on my way to San Diego where I met with the author of the book “Stop Sitting on Your Assets”. We agreed that I would co-author a Canadian version of her book. I will team up with financial planners and conduct seminars to bring this new thinking to the attention of a larger audience – but I can assure you that as my client, you will receive your VIP back stage pass before this takes place.

I realize that my enthusiasm for the new approach to ‘mortgage planning’ may not resonate with everybody. It is however an option, for those whose circumstances and temperament it fits, to safely leverage the equity trapped in their homes and to transform it into a source of increased wealth and security.



Stay tuned, and beware of Black Swans!

THE ROAD TO AVALON

In September, my wife Adriana and I made a spontaneous decision to take a one week trip to Newfoundland. We love un-planned, un-scheduled, un-hurried travel with opportunities for chance encounters. Hiking along the ubiquitous wind-swept shoreline trails of the Avalon Peninsula, picking blueberries along the way, striking up conversations with other travelers, and enjoying the hospitality and comfort of B&Bs, suited us perfectly.
Although I wanted to get away from business for a while, I did have thoughts about the sub-prime havoc south of the boarder and recalled earlier periods of upheaval that affected home equity and the mortgage business in Canada.

Bed and Breakfast places are as unique as the people you meet in them. Imagine a person from London who described his work as ‘arbitrage tax negotiator’! This outlandish description was enough to stimulate a lively exchange between his global equity trading vs. my street level view of “lazy home equity”.

At another B&B I met the author of a new real estate book with the intriguing title “The Naked Home Owner”. While the title is rather amusing the metaphor aptly expresses the apprehension of many homeowners over their equity today.

The current mortgage crisis in the States, reminds me of the oil price shocks of the seventies and the eighties market crash. During the oil crisis, interest rates surged to more than 21% and, during the late 80’s, high, short term, interest rates resulted in reduced consumer spending, substantially eroded property values and job losses.

I remember the last real estate cycle very clearly because I bought my house at the peak, in May 1989. Now, after nearly 18 years, its market value is just about back to the 1989 level. At the lowest point I had lost a lot of “lazy equity”. I call it “lazy equity” because I earned no return on the equity tied up in my house. Subsequently, I realized that, had I made only a small down payment, or no down payment at all, the equity could have been invested in other assets that might have appreciated rather than depreciated. Of course, I have enjoyed living in the house and did save money by paying down the mortgage. However, saving money is not the same thing as making money.

While paying off a mortgage does reduce interest costs, at the same time it denies us the opportunity to invest that money elsewhere. By tackling the goal of paying down a mortgage first, before developing a wealth accumulation plan, we may fail to consider the important role a mortgage can play in such a plan.

Alan Greenspan, past president and chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, known for his conservative views, apologized publicly the other day for underestimating the potential impact of the un-controlled sub prime market on the housing market and the economy. He had concluded that ‘crashes’ cannot be avoided and that they should be considered as self-correcting mechanisms that restore balance or equilibrium.

How can the hapless homeowner protect equity, the difference between home value and outstanding mortgage financing, when significant “corrections” in real estate values are always possible? The answer is that we must carefully re-evaluate our beliefs and strategies.

Many of our attitudes and beliefs are inherited from our parents and their generation, who thought of their home equity as the ultimate retirement fund or their house as an asset which might also be passed on to the next generation. They taught us to make a big down payment, get a fixed-rate mortgage, and to make extra principal payments whenever we could, to pay down the mortgage debt as quickly as possible.

The problem with this strategy is that it has become outdated. The rules of the game have changed. Unlike our parents, we no longer have the same job for 30 years, depend on a company’s pension plan for a secure retirement, live in the same house for 25 years or keep the same mortgage.

Wealthy people, who have the ability to pay off their mortgages, understand how to make mortgages work for them, and choose not to pay them off. They make minimal down payments, keep their mortgage balance as high as possible, choose adjustable-rate mortgages and, most importantly, integrate their mortgages into their overall financial plan.

The good news is that any homeowner can now implement the strategies that the rich use to increase their net worth. In the last 12 months, dramatic changes in mortgage financing now allow homeowners to combine saving, debt reduction and investing. You can even make your mortgage interest tax deductible! Implementation of these strategies requires that we change our view of a mortgage from a millstone of debt, to an item to be integrated into an overall financial plan.

The traditional strategy has two limitations which, under some conditions, may be restrictive and costly. The equity which is gradually accumulated cannot be accessed without selling the property. It does not contribute to the increasing value of the property nor can it be used elsewhere to generate wealth. Worse still, in circumstances of job loss or other economic disruption, the very time when access to capital might be most necessary, home equity is effectively locked in and unavailable to the owner.

The circumstances of each individual or family are unique and it is not appropriate for everyone to adopt these particular wealth creation strategies. However, if you would like to learn more about them and to discuss whether they might be appropriate for you, please give me a call.

Canadian Actuaries Urge Government To Make Mortgage Payments Tax Deductible

The thorny issue of allowing Canadian homeowners to deduct mortgage interest payments from their income tax is back in the news, after the Canadian Institute of Actuaries suggested it would help people save for retirement. And that's important because a recent study commissioned by the group says that two-thirds of Canadians expecting to retire in 2030 are not saving enough money to avoid financial hardship. Click Here to view the rest of this article.

MILE STONES

This year is a milestone in the history of Tridac Corporation Limited, marking our 30th anniversary.

Looking back over these 30 years, my strongest impression is one of change. It seems as if we began in a time of relatively slow change, then we tossed away our quill pens and accelerated into the modern age of frenetic widespread change and instant communication.
Until only a few years ago banks operated much as they always had. Secure, powerful and unchanging they operated under the “Three-Six-Three” rule, which meant paying depositors three percent for their money, lending it out at six-percent - and closing the doors at 3:00 PM.

When banks limited credit to a select few, and when it was still possible to start up a Trust Company with only $3 million, mortgage brokers supplied those small, innovative Trust Companies with high ratio mortgages. It was a time when banks reserved CMHC insured loans for “risky” borrowers – and then only if they could afford a 25% down payment.

Never hotbeds of innovation, banks stuck with five year term mortgages, 25 year amortizations and no provisions for early pay out. To cope with this inflexibility, we frequently employed “Vendor Take Back” (VTB) mortgages, which were often traded to eager private investors. The VTB and mortgage broker access to private money helped to lubricate the system for borrowers.

Over the years, borrowers and lenders have experienced some difficult times! A real shock occurred during the oil crisis of the late 70’s, when interest rates rocketed to 21%. But in spite of those phenomenal rates, few people lost their homes. The recession of the late 80’s was much worse because many people lost their jobs and the income necessary to pay for shelter. G7 governments finally learned that deficits and inflation do not mix well and we have since seen interest rates sink to progressively lower levels.

Canadian Credit Unions were the first institutions to innovate when they introduced weekly and bi-weekly payment options to facilitate accelerated mortgage repayment by their members.

The events of 9/11 precipitated a further rapid fall in interest rates which have been down to the mid four percent range three times in the last five years.

Recognizing that Consumers wanted choice, rather than simply taking what their financial institutions offered, I had Tridac join the The Mortgage Centre franchise network ten years ago. The Mortgage Centre, with a network of over 100 locations from coast to coast, operates an exclusive mortgage market system through which lenders compete for mortgages via an electronic bid process that makes their best offers available to purchasers.

The evidence seems to indicate that this was a wise move because the share of mortgages originated by mortgage brokers has increased from less then 1% to about 35%.

In the old days, when lenders called the tune, consumers were more or less obliged to accept the 25 year amortized standard mortgage, as the only flavor available. Now that banks have been forced by the market, to provide the flexibility introduced by Credit Unions and mortgage brokers, we have raised the bar. Today, we help borrowers to save money and to get out of debt as soon as possible. In fact, our Mission Statement is:

“We are committed to helping you
achieve debt free home ownership,
at minimum cost, in minimum time.”

We now see our role as more like that of a financial advisor. We recommend that home buyers exploring mortgage financing not begin with the question: “What is your mortgage rate?” but rather, “How do I position myself to pay the least amount of interest over the life time of the mortgage”. Unlike lenders, who naturally benefit if borrowers pay more, rather than less interest, we benefit if we have happy clients whose good experiences lead them to refer their family, friends, neighbors and colleagues to us when they need a mortgage.

This way of doing business is called “By Referral Only” and I am delighted to be able to say that, by constantly trying to exceed my client’s expectations, more than 90% of my business comes from returning clients and referrals. I am so pleased by the level of referrals that, in order to express my thanks, we will be having a draw on December 31, called “Skip or double up a payment”. Consistent with the above Mission Statement, the draw will have three prizes, each equal to the highest monthly mortgage payment of the three winners.

Every client, for whom we have arranged mortgage financing in 2007, and everyone, who has given us a referral leading to a completed application in 2007, will be entered in the draw.

Tridac Corporation, which was originally formed by myself and two partners, expanded over time to three locations in Toronto, Mississauga and Ajax. Then circumstances changed and we consolidated to our one attractive and conveniently located office at Danforth and Broadview. The most recent significant change occurred when my son Christopher joined me in the business after graduating last year with a degree in Business and Economics. He decided he would like to join me after enjoying a summer job with Firstline Trust.

This year is also the 15th anniversary of another of my companies, Hansa Mortgage Investment Corporation. Hansa is a “Mortgage Investment Company” or “MIC”, a private mortgage investment fund, which lends mortgage money in niche situations, which do not conform to institutional lender guidelines. Most of the money in the fund comes from investors self directed RRSPs. Over 15 years the RRSP investors, who previously invested their money in individual mortgages, have made an average annual return of 10.36%, without the problems associated with managing their own funds. If you have RRSP funds available and would like to consider becoming a shareholder of Hansa Mortgage Investment Corporation, please give me a call. We have room to expand and can accommodate a few more investors.

My career as a mortgage broker has been challenging, satisfying and rewarding so I wish to not only thank you with the “Skip or double up a payment” draw, but also ..

You are invited
to celebrate with us
during the “Taste of The Danforth” festival
Friday August 10 and Saturday August 11
between 6.30 and 9.30 pm
To enjoy some delicious food and drinks